Monday February 10, 2020
- Grain markets failing to hold onto gains made Friday as we prepare for tomorrows USDA report (see estimates below)
- What numbers we look at in the report
- Carryout: this number represents all the supply from 2019 production less all the demand foreseen from now until the end of the marketing year (corn & beans Aug 31, wheat June 30), at this time of year there is no change in supply as the crops are already off, for this number to change we need to see a change in demand, more demand would lead to lower carryout (positive for markets), less demand would lead to lower carryout (negative for markets)
- World carryout is determined in the same manor but accounts for all grain produced so both supply and demand is changing frequently
- South American production estimates: as we are already into the South American harvest we look at what they expect to produce – for a positive effect on our markets we would want to see their production shrink
- Markets often quiet to slightly lower pre report as funds wait to see what the USDA will release before shifting a position
- Russian Ag Ministry updated 2020 wheat production estimate on Friday to 79.5 MMT
- Coronavirus continues to spread through China and the world,
- the death toll has reached 910 – comparatively SARS took 7 months to claim 800 lives in 2003
| USDA 2019/2020 U.S. Carryout (in billion bushels) | ||||
| Commodity | Feb USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | Jan USDA Report |
| Corn | 1.864 | 1.788-1.942 | 1.892 | |
| Soybeans | 0.443 | 0.320-0.520 | 0.475 | |
| Wheat | 0.954 | 0.934-0.975 | 0.965 |
| USDA 2019/2020 World Carryout (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | Feb USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | Jan USDA Report |
| Corn | 297.19 | 295.0-299.5 | 297.40 | |
| Soybeans | 96.90 | 94.2-99.3 | 96.67 | |
| Wheat | 287.44 | 285.0-288.8 | 288.08 |
| USDA 2019/2020 South American Production (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | Feb USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | Jan USDA Report |
| Argentine Corn | 50.00 | 48.0-51.0 | 50.00 | |
| Arg. Soybeans | 53.15 | 52.5-54.0 | 53.00 | |
| Brazilian Corn | 100.85 | 99.0-101.0 | 101.00 | |
| Braz. Soybeans | 123.65 | 122.5-125.0 | 123.00 |