Thursday February 13, 2020

• Weekly export numbers from the U.S. 
  • Corn and wheat came in on the higher end of expectations, soybeans came in on the lower end of expected range
• The phase-one deal officially kicks off this weekend marking the 30 days after the signing – we will watch to see if any goodwill purchases will be made over the next week 
• Old crop soybean prices rose to their highest levels so far this month on the overnights though still less than 30 cents off lows and still not able to push past the $9.00 futures value 
• A rally would be tough to sustain with so much uncertainty revolving around both the coronavirus and it affects on demand and the amount of Chinese purchases and how it will affect the export program 
• Private consultant Strategie Grains updated their 2020 European Union soft wheat production estimate for 2020 lowering previous estimate by 1.2 MMT to 138.6 MMT – still lower than 2019’s production of 146.0 MMT 
• Ukraine reporting 80% of their country’s crop were in perfect condition – including the 15.8 million acres of wheat planted in the fall 
• Brazilian real hitting new record lows is just another attraction for China purchasing their beans vs the more expensive American beans 
• Stocks under pressure again today as China changed the definition of those diagnosed with the coronavirus again 
  • They had previously changed the definition to include only those who tested positive to the virus and were showing symptoms – slowing the amount of cases reported as many days could pass between one getting infected and displaying symptoms
  • Now a new definition is having the opposite effect increasing the cases drastically, over 30% overnight to 60,349 people 
  • The new defintiion includes not only those testing positive without showing symptoms, but also those showing symptoms who have not gone through testing