Tuesday March 3, 2020

Markets are up this morning with the grains still slightly bullish on market stimulus rumors and rebounding off recent short term lows and hope that a recovering China will move closer to making notable purchases under the phase-one trade agreement it has with the United States
COVID-19 cases have reached over 90 000 cases
20/21 Australian wheat is expected to be up 40% yoy per ABARES and recent rains have encouraged planting
Brazil’s bean exports are up a lot compared to last month but slightly behind last years pace and corn exports are behind last year and last month
- keep in mind last year US and China were in the midst of the trade war and taking almost no beans from the US, this shows Brazil is still the favored exporter and that China’s need for beans is still lower
Bean crush for January came in 1.5 mln bu above trade expectations 5 mln bu above last year and the highest monthly total on record showing a good pace for domestic use
Corn exports for the week came in on the low end of expectations and on pace with last week, beans were in the middle of expectations and slightly up from the previous week with wheat exceeding expectations and a 1/3rd higher than the previous week
Weekly wheat ratings have increased for both Kansas and Texas by about 7 points each
Corn use for ethanol was down 4 % yoy
Brazilian Exports have been delayed due to recent rains and Argentinian purchase have been put on hold due to the uncertainty of the changes to the export tax
Bean exports are behind pace and in some cases lower than last year in the middle of the trade war and well behind the 5 year-avg especially during what is normally the seasonal peak