Wednesday March 11, 2020
- USDA report came through as a complete non-event yesterday – see results below
- Trade continue to be focused on outside factors; corona virus fears and the sliding crude oil markets
- Stock markets rattled by increasing lock downs in the U.S.
- Since February U.S. soybean shipments to China have hit a 20-year low; partly due to corona virus spread, ample South American supplies, and costs
- Argentine farmers have begun a four day strike against the increases made to the soybean export tariff – from 30 to 33% Strike not expected to have much of an impact on shipments due to the large stocks already available at the ports
- Australia is expecting a 40% rise in wheat production this year up to 21.3 MMT due to heavy rains improving planting conditions
- USDA reported wheat ratings in the major wheat states Kansas and Oklahoma coming in at 47% good/excellent and 58% g/e respectively
- Brazil’s safrinha corn planting is now 75-80% complete as the planting window usually closes around mid March However record high corn priced may be encouraging farmers to push their planting later than recommended this year
- South American soybean production increases were the biggest take away from the USDA report yesterday, both Argentina’s and Brazil’s crop size getting increasedThis is the largest factor contributing to the overall global stocks increase as well
- No changes made to any of the U.S. carryout estimates – seem to be kicking the problem of the lack of exports down the road
- USDA report out at noon today – not expecting major changes
- Trade is waiting for a decrease in export numbers for both corn and beans but unsure if it will come in this report – if it does likely affect will be negative on the markets
- If USDA looks at export shipments made so far for corn and beans compared to where they need to be to meet USDA estimates they are well below projections and will either need to see sharp rises in exports through the spring and summer or a decrease in their estimate
- Trade is waiting for a decrease in export numbers for both corn and beans but unsure if it will come in this report – if it does likely affect will be negative on the markets
| USDA 2019/2020 U.S. Carryout (in billion bushels) | ||||
| Commodity | Mar USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | Feb USDA Report |
| Corn | 1.892 | 1.888 | 1.798 – 1.942 | 1.892 |
| Soybeans | 0.425 | 0.426 | 0.410 – 0.450 | 0.425 |
| Wheat | 0.940 | 0.944 | 0.940 – 0.965 | 0.940 |
| USDA 2019/2020 World Carryout (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | Mar USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | Feb USDA Report |
| Corn | 297.34 | 297.25 | 294.90 – 299.50 | 296.84 |
| Soybeans | 102.44 | 99.33 | 97.80 – 101.00 | 98.86 |
| Wheat | 287.14 | 288.47 | 286.30 – 291.00 | 288.03 |
| USDA 2019/2020 South American Production (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | Mar USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | Feb USDA Report |
| Argentine Corn | 50.00 | 50.47 | 49.50 – 53.50 | 50.00 |
| Arg. Soybeans | 54.00 | 53.75 | 53.00 – 55.50 | 53.00 |
| Brazilian Corn | 101.00 | 101.01 | 99.50 – 102.00 | 101.00 |
| Braz. Soybeans | 126.00 | 125.03 | 124.20 – 126.00 | 125.00 |