Monday April 13, 2020

Markets under pressure coming out of the long weekend this morning
Thursdays USDA report summary
- Corn: corn used for ethanol was cut by 375 million bu which was a bigger cut than expected in this report, some increase in feed numbers to counter but not near enough to off set the loss – overall the USDA increased carryout to reflect falling corn demand
- Soybeans: carryout was also raised, exports were lowered which comes as no surprised as the pace has been too slow all year to reach estimates
- Wheat: not big changes on the wheat front
Cold weather will stall corn planting in the U.S. this week but the trade is not showing concern as the demand story for corn remains dismal
Private analysts Safras & Mercado are expecting a record 13.5 MMT of soybeans exported from Brazil in April after March’s 13.3 MMT of exports
Brazilian analyst Conab cut their estimated for 2019/20 soybean production from 124.1 MMT to 122.1 MMT
In the same report Conab increased production estimated for corn from 100.1 MMT to 101.9 MMT
23 nations have agreed to reduce crude oil output over the weekend – markets not reacting as much as trade had hoped because even with the cut in supply there is no change in sight on the demand side with the world still essentially immobile due to the spreading coronavirus
COVID numbers from the states now over half a million people with some states not expected to peak for up to two weeks – however national numbers are expected to begin showing signs of improvement this week