Monday June 8, 2020
- Demand has begun its gradual recovery as Chinese purchases have been semi-consistent and ethanol plants slowly re-opening – sending hopeful messages that the worst of the demand losses is behind us
- USDA monthly supply and demand report out on Thursday at noon – see estimates below
- More than likely they will be using March’s estimated acres numbers and trendline yields for production so any changes in new crop carryouts will be a reflection of demand
- When these reports are released the best case for a market rally is seeing lower numbers than expected – we want lower carryout numbers as they add more risk to the markets allowing more potential for grain rallies
- Unfortunately for 2020-2021 we are looking at a significant increase in carryout meaning we will need to see something major to move the markets
- As rains from tropical storm Cristobal drift North it is seeming as though the rains will be kept to a narrow corridor through the states leaving most of the Midwest dry in the next 10 days helping support the recent gains in the corn market
| USDA 2019/2020 U.S. Carryout (in billion bushels) | ||||
| Commodity | June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report |
| Corn | 2.150 | 2.090-2.303 | 2.098 | |
| Soybeans | 0.577 | 0.497-0.630 | 0.580 | |
| Wheat | 0.979 | 0.968-0.998 | 0.978 |
| USDA 2020/2021 U.S. Carryout (in billion bushels) | ||||
| Commodity | June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report |
| Corn | 3.360 | 2.897-3.595 | 3.318 | |
| Soybeans | 0.426 | 0.350-0.572 | 0.405 | |
| Wheat | 0.897 | 0.820-0.940 | 0.909 |
| USDA 2019/2020 World Carryout (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report |
| Corn | 314.31 | 310.00-319.70 | 314.73 | |
| Soybeans | 101.23 | 98.50-110.35 | 100.27 | |
| Wheat | 294.63 | 292.00-296.00 | 295.12 |
| USDA 2020/2021 World Carryout (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report |
| Corn | 339.78 | 335.00-346.60 | 339.62 | |
| Soybeans | 98.64 | 96.00-102.40 | 98.39 | |
| Wheat | 607.74 | 300.00-310.50 | 310.12 |
| USDA 2019/2020 South American Production (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report |
| Argentine Corn | 49.83 | 49.00-50.00 | 50.00 | |
| Arg. Soybeans | 50.64 | 50.00-51.20 | 51.00 | |
| Brazilian Corn | 99.42 | 96.50-102.00 | 101.00 | |
| Braz. Soybeans | 122.97 | 121.00-125.00 | 124.00 |