Friday June 12, 2020
- USDA was pretty much a non
event in the markets yesterday
- See break down below
- Markets in the green this morning now that the report is behind them and back looking at the dry spell on tap for the next 10 days in the U.S.
- Wheat approaches spring lows as we approach harvest with no major crop concerns and no positive spin from yesterdays report
- Chinese sales coming back into soybean story this morning
June 11, 2020 USDA Supply & Demand Report
Corn
- Net unchanged to slightly positive: overall we knew the report was going to show lots of corn, but it ended up being slightly less than expected
- No reason to be getting on track for $5.00 corn any time soon but re-enforces the idea that we are distancing ourselves from lows made this spring
- Updates were made to slightly
lower 2019’s yield by 0.4 bu/ac, however they also lowered the corn used
for ethanol number making only a small decline in stocks numbers
- This change lowered the carry in from 2019/20 to 2020/21 thus lowering that carry-out number as well – overall no changes were made to supply or demand for 2020/21 year
Soybeans
- Not a strong indication to move any direction from yesterdays report
- Old crop carryout was increased as they lowered export expectations for 2019/20 – they did raise crush expectations but not enough to offset the loss of exports
- For new crop the carryout was lower than expected as they increased export expectations for the 2020/21 crop year
Wheat
- Felt pressure from the report as a reminder that there is lots of wheat in America and the world
- No concern with production this year – exports got lowered slightly from last season and yield estimates increased increasing old and new crop carryout numbers
| USDA 2019/2020 U.S. Carryout (in billion bushels) | ||||
| Commodity | June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report |
| Corn | 2.103 | 2.150 | 2.090-2.303 | 2.098 |
| Soybeans | 0.585 | 0.577 | 0.497-0.630 | 0.580 |
| Wheat | 0.983 | 0.979 | 0.968-0.998 | 0.978 |
| USDA 2020/2021 U.S. Carryout (in billion bushels) | ||||
| Commodity | June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report |
| Corn | 3.323 | 3.360 | 2.897-3.595 | 3.318 |
| Soybeans | 0.395 | 0.426 | 0.350-0.572 | 0.405 |
| Wheat | 0.925 | 0.897 | 0.820-0.940 | 0.909 |
| USDA 2019/2020 World Carryout (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report |
| Corn | 312.91 | 314.31 | 310.00-319.70 | 314.73 |
| Soybeans | 99.19 | 101.23 | 98.50-110.35 | 100.27 |
| Wheat | 295.84 | 294.63 | 292.00-296.00 | 295.12 |
| USDA 2020/2021 World Carryout (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report |
| Corn | 337.91 | 339.78 | 335.00-346.60 | 339.62 |
| Soybeans | 96.19 | 98.64 | 96.00-102.40 | 98.39 |
| Wheat | 316.09 | 307.74 | 300.00-310.50 | 310.12 |
| USDA 2019/2020 South American Production (in million metric tonnes) | ||||
| Commodity | June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report |
| Argentine Corn | 50.00 | 49.83 | 49.00-50.00 | 50.00 |
| Arg. Soybeans | 50.00 | 50.64 | 50.00-51.20 | 51.00 |
| Brazilian Corn | 101.00 | 99.42 | 96.50-102.00 | 101.00 |
| Braz. Soybeans | 124.00 | 122.97 | 121.00-125.00 | 124.00 |
| 2020/21 U.S. Crop Production (in billion bushels) | ||||
| June USDA Report | Avg Trade Estimate | Estimate Range | May USDA Report | |
| All Wheat | 1.877 | 1.850 | 1.824-1.875 | 1.866 |