Tuesday August 4, 2020

Markets under pressure this morning as crop conditions remain steady to better despite warm dry forecast ahead – trade seems un-concerned
- We are facing a year of average to better crop production in both Ontario and the U.S. with average to lower demand
- This is not a recipe for high prices – this is a year to be more focused on covering your risk and staying off the lows than holding out for an unexpected rally
Brazilian exports for the month of July – Soybeans exceeded July ’19 exports by almost 3 MMT reaching 10.37 MMT and corn came in below last July at 4.15 MMT
Ukraine harvest continues now with 18.3 MMT of wheat harvested so far about half way through harvest
U.S. soybean crush numbers for the month of June came in at 177.3 million bu – slightly below expectations but still a record for the month of June
U.S. corn used for ethanol in June was 378.9 million bu an increase from May but still well of June 2019’s usage
U.S. crop ratings
- Corn remained unchanged this week at 72% good/excellent – still ahead of average of 67% g/e
- Soybeans increased this week to 73% g/e – 10% ahead of average ratings of 63% g/e
- Winter wheat harvest now 85% complete in the U.S. – slightly behind average pace
Stone X (previously FCStone) released their 2020 yield expectations
- Corn expected at 182.4 bu/ac
  - Almost 4 bu/ac more than latest USDA estimate
- Soybeans expected at 54.2 bu/ac
  - Over 4 bu/ac more than current government estimate of 49.8 bu/ac
American – Chinese tensions continue to rise and are expected to remain in the headlines heading into the fall election as a campaigning strategy for Trump as many Americans do not favourably view the Chinese government
- Despite escalating tensions Ag purchases have been strong