Monday September 14, 2020

  • USDA on Friday confirmed a shrinking crop with lower yields for both corn and beans as well as left room for continued optimism on increasing export numbers
  • Soybean futures hitting $10.00 for the first time since 2018
  • China’s Ag Ministry increased their estimate for 2019/20 from 6 MMT to 7 MMT due to the significant increase of U.S. cargoes in the last stretch of the marketing year 
  • Septembers China Agriculture Supply and Demand report reduced corn production by 1.8 MMT due to typhoon damage 
    • Private estimates have the damage as bad as 10 MMT 
    • China has the advantage of hand labor to pick the cobs off the flattened stocks 

Friday September 11 – USDA Report SummaryCorn

  • Harvested acres were lowered by 0.5 million – due to losses in Iowa
  • Yield was lowered from 181.8 bu/ac to 178.3 bu/ac – again partially from damage from storm in August as well as heat/drought stress for the last half of August in Midwest 
    • Both of these changes were as expected
  • Most notable takeaway from corn balance sheet was that there were no changes made to exports despite the aggressive purchases from China over the past two months 
    • This leaves room for further optimism for the markets that the carryout numbers can shrink lower once the amount of Chinese exports are reflected on the balance sheet on future reports 


  • Yield moved from 53.3 bu/ac to 51.9 bu/ac – as expected 
  • Increase in old crop exports made a smaller carry-in into 2020/21 year 
  • No changes on 2020/21 exports yet – despite strong start in sales for the marketing year
    • Again although all the numbers came in fairly close to expected the fact that no update was made on exports considering the hefty stream in the last months leads optimism that in future reports exports can eat away further at the carryout number


  • No changes were made on the sheet for the U.S. 
  • Globally Canadian and Australian wheat production were increased for 2020/21 causing overall global supply to increase giving wheat reason to test lower post report