Monday November 16, 2020

• Moderna vaccine estimated 94% effective against COVID-19 refueling optimism in global markets
• Forecasts swinging drier again in South America helping to push soys and corn futures higher this morning
• Areas in Argentina had good rains over the weekend however Brazil rains were less than had been expected
• South American crop prodution estimates have so far remained unchanged – however as the rains continue to disappoint they may not be able to hold on much longer before seeing a production decline
• Estimated that China has taken 34 MMT of the U.S. 2020/21 soybean crop – with current projections for U.S. ending stocks any growth in this number could create very tight supply
• U.S. current estimates are for a 190 million bu carryout – the U.S. needs to hold at least 100-120 million bu which does not give a whole lot of wiggle room for more exports