Wednesday February 10, 2021

  • Markets notably lower this morning after mixed close yesterday
  • Markets were looking for further confirmation that this rally could go on forever yesterday – and though the numbers that came out yesterday were not overly detrimental – they did not perpetuate the ‘endless demand’ story the market has been trading
    • Soybeans in particular did not give us any sort of ‘reason’ to go down, but we saw no change in the South American production that they were hoping for and as for the export side of the balance sheet we did see an increase in that number but it almost feels like the last chance for the export side
      • Typically February is the turning point from North American export strength down to South America 
      • With the focus on exports shifting to South America in the coming weeks it is unlikely we will see USDA padding U.S. exports as we go into their seasonal decline
  • China made a cancelation this morning on 132 thousand MT of corn from the U.S. – and this coupled with the underwhelming report yesterday is causing a justified set back in the corn prices
    • Is this the end – too early to tell but certainly did not give any reason to push to new highs as we were already sitting at the highest prices we had seen in several years pre-report  
  • Wheat saw no changes to U.S. balance sheet – however global wheat did see a reduction in carryout 
    • Global decrease can be attributed to increased domestic use in India, as well as use in China increasing as feed wheat prices in the country is lower than corn prices