Tuesday March 16, 2021

Markets continue to limp along without much bullish news
Contradictory reports of Brazilian weather and crop conditions continue to confuse the market place
- Some reports saying that recent heavy rains have caused a great deal of damage to unharvested soybeans and will seriously impact their production
- However official estimates remain at record highs – and there are reputable reports saying that yes, there are some losses due to the rains but much of the crop in the affected areas was harvested prior to the rains and other regions in the country having higher than average yields are also helping to counter any of those loses
- Until the final yields are reported and beans are in the bin we cannot know for sure the full extent of the damage but we must be aware of the contradictory headlines and ensure we are reading the full details of these reports
As we approach the official USDA prospective planting report at the end of the month we will see private estimates enter the market place
- Allendale Inc
  - estimating 92.8 million corn acres, compared to USDA Outlook Forum initial estimate at 92 million
  - estimating 90.3 million soybean acres, compared to USDA Outlook Forum estimate of 90.8 million
  - estimating all wheat acres at 46.4 million compared to working USDA number of 45 million
Yesterday NOPA released their soybean crush for February at 155.2 million bu – coming in below even the lowest estimate going into the report – down from 184.7 million bu in January