Wednesday April 12, 2021

• Mixed markets to start the day as we await the USDA report at noon today, old crop soybeans seeing huge gains this morning
• Chinas Ag Ministry increased their production estimate for the 2021/22 crop to 271.8 MMT, up from 260.7 MMT last season- attributed to an increase in acres by 3% and an estimated 1% yield increase 
• China also lowered their estimated production for soybeans by about 5% from last year to 18.65 MMT 

USDA Report Estimates 

• Corn: looking for a further decline in 2020/21 carryout due to increased demand, world carryout also expected to be lowered mostly due to a decline in Brazils second crop corn. First look at 2021/22 carryout numbers expecting still fairly tight carryout – this number will most likely be based on March acreage estimates and trendline yield – demand projects is where we may get some surprises 
• Soybeans: again looking for a further decline in 2020/21 carryout due to increased demand. First look at 2021/22 carryout also looks fairly tight again this number will likely be based on March acreage estimates and trendline yield – demand projects is where we may get some surprises
  • Though it would be surprising and has never been done before there is the possibility that the USDA could choose to not use the March 31 acreage numbers and use their own – this is fairly unlikely but given the amount of criticism that the lower than expected March 31 numbers drew from the industry that possibility is being discussed – and if this were to be the case – I think this would be a very tough pill for the market to swallow at these prices 
• Wheat: No major shake ups expected in carryout, a slight decline expected due to increased demand for old crop – next years carryout expected to be smaller yet. U.S. all wheat production estimated at 1.871 billion bu – that is a slight increase from Aprils estimate