Friday October 1, 2021

• Mixed markets coming from the USDA report yesterday and carried over into todays trade
• Report came out very supportive for wheat, not too exciting for corn and detrimental to the soybean market
  • Wheat – quarterly stocks number came in lower than expected, re-enforcing the tightness story we have seen in the U.S. which will help keep the wheat prices supported 
  • Corn – this was the ending stocks number for the 2020/21 and the beginning stocks number of 2021/22 marketing year. It came in slightly higher than expected but within the expected range. Though this number was higher than expected it was still not high enough to “solve” the tightness concern in the corn market. This higher number reflects less feed demand over the last quarter than expected.
  • Soybeans – also the ending stocks number for the 2020/21 and the beginning stocks number of 2021/22 marketing year. This came in significantly higher than expected and above expected range which in turn pushed the markets lower. This came as a surprise – the increase actually came from the USDA increasing last years yield by 0.8 bu/ac. So the good news is, that this increase is not an indication of less demand than they had expected BUT it does offer a bit of relief to the soybean market overall with things not being as tight as we had expected 
• Beyond this report all eye are turning to 2021 yields – which we likely wont get a good “official” indication of until mid October