Wednesday October 13, 2021

• Markets received a shake up yesterday with some surprises coming from the USDA 
  • See full break down below 
• The fall in the soybean market has caused some buying with both China and Unknown stepping in this morning to make U.S. purchases  
• U.S. Crop Progress
  • Corn – now 41% harvested – ahead of the 5 year average pace of 31% complete
  • Soybeans – 49% harvested – also ahead of average of 40% complete
  • Winter wheat planting – 60% completed – right on track with average pace 

USDA Report

Corn

• Corn had a worse report than expected with an unanticipated yield increase (average estimates going into the report were looking for a yield decrease), which in turn created a higher projection for U.S. 2021/22 carryout, as well as a rise in global carryout
• On the demand side of the balance sheet – no huge changes, a slight decrease in feed usage, and a slight increase in exports overall netted slightly lower demand than in the September Report – also contributing to the higher 2021/22 carryout projection
• Overall certainly not the reassurance the corn market was looking for 

Soybeans

• Soybeans also did not take this report well, also seeing a larger yield increase than anticipated, as well as higher 2021/22 U.S. carryout and a larger global carryout
• Virtually no change on the demand side of the balance sheet, only seeing a slight increase in crush usage 

Wheat

• Wheat on the other hand had a positive outlook coming from the report – but was not able to run away with gains as the market was being weighed down by the less than ideal corn and bean stories
• Yield was lowered slightly, as well as harvested acres leading to lower 2021 production 
• On the demand side, feed usage was lowered, but not by enough to offset the production losses leading to an overall lower carryout from last month (but within the expected range for this report)