Wednesday March 2, 2022

• Wheat continues to skyrocket higher, locked at limit up, as war forges on in two of the largest global wheat producing countries in the world
• Corn and soybeans taking a backseat today seeing some more profit taking 
• The effects of the Black Sea being taken out of the global export game is what is the fuel of the day for the rally 
  • We may see more additional sales coming the U.S. as the Black Sea supplied get locked down 
  • At this point we don’t have the ability to see how much of this rally is backed by actual commercial buyers trying to rework their import positions, and how much is speculator buying
• Traders beginning to ask “at what point is the war priced into the market” – a question unfortunately no one has the answer to today
• StoneX updated their South American production estimates
  • Brazil soybeans from 126.5 MMT down to 121.2 MMT (initial estimate was 145 MMT) 
  • Brazil all corn estimate remained unchanged at 116.1 MMT