Friday May 13, 2022

Mixed markets this morning with wheat taking back some of the massive gains made post report yesterday as corn and beans sit just around yesterdays close
The wheat market continues to battle with global uncertainty post USDA report sitting just off yesterdays highs as the report offered no relief to the tightness in global wheat supplies
Ukraine’s crop production for 2022/23 marketing year was updated in yesterdays report
- Corn form 42.13 MMT last season estimated at 19.5 MMT for 22/23
- Wheat from 33.0 MMT last season estimated at 21.5 MMT for 22/23

USDA Report Take Away
Corn – Confirmed the story that their is very little margin for error in this crop and prices should stay fairly strong through planting

Old crop saw no changes to the balance sheet
For the first look into 2022/23 planted acres remain at the 89.5 million that they predicted in March, they pegged yield at 177 bu/ac – same as last years which was a bit of a surprise because this was below the trendline prediction
On the demand side for 2022/23 they lowered feed and export usage as compared to 2021/22 and left ethanol usage the same
Overall the corn carryout for 22/23 came in as expected – which is on the tight side of comfortable

Soybeans – Overall as expected, the question we will be asking is if acres get flipped to corn over the next few weeks

Old crop saw an overall expected dip in carryout due to an increase in export demand
For the first look into the 2022/23 planted acres remain at the 91.0 million projected in March, yield pegged at 51.5 bu/ac right above last season
Demand we are looking for an increase in crush and export usage bringing the initial carryout projection to 310 million bu – slightly below average estimates but still within a comfortable range for soybeans and a strong recovery from last years 235 million bu

Wheat – Although the report came in fairly close to expectations it re-affirmed that the global wheat shortage will not be solved by the U.S. this season

Old crop saw an increase in both food and export usage overall lowering carryout for 2021/22 to slightly to the bottom end of expected range
2022/23 production came in slightly below expected, food usage expected to increase slightly with a decline in exports overall leaving the carryout for 2022/23 on the lower end of expectations but within the range