Friday May 13, 2022

  • Mixed markets this morning with wheat taking back some of the massive gains made post report yesterday as corn and beans sit just around yesterdays close
  • The wheat market continues to battle with global uncertainty post USDA report sitting just off yesterdays highs as the report offered no relief to the tightness in global wheat supplies 
  • Ukraine’s crop production for 2022/23 marketing year was updated in yesterdays report
    • Corn form 42.13 MMT last season estimated at 19.5 MMT for 22/23
    • Wheat from 33.0 MMT last season estimated at 21.5 MMT for 22/23

USDA Report Take Away
Corn – Confirmed the story that their is very little margin for error in this crop and prices should stay fairly strong through planting 

  • Old crop saw no changes to the balance sheet
  • For the first look into 2022/23 planted acres remain at the 89.5 million that they predicted in March, they pegged yield at 177 bu/ac – same as last years which was a bit of a surprise because this was below the trendline prediction 
  • On the demand side for 2022/23 they lowered feed and export usage as compared to 2021/22 and left ethanol usage the same
  • Overall the corn carryout for 22/23 came in as expected – which is on the tight side of comfortable 

Soybeans – Overall as expected, the question we will be asking is if acres get flipped to corn over the next few weeks 

  • Old crop saw an overall expected dip in carryout due to an increase in export demand
  • For the first look into the 2022/23 planted acres remain at the 91.0 million projected in March, yield pegged at 51.5 bu/ac right above last season 
  • Demand we are looking for an increase in crush and export usage bringing the initial carryout projection to 310 million bu – slightly below average estimates but still within a comfortable range for soybeans and a strong recovery from last years 235 million bu 

Wheat – Although the report came in fairly close to expectations it re-affirmed that the global wheat shortage will not be solved by the U.S. this season 

  • Old crop saw an increase in both food and export usage overall lowering carryout for 2021/22 to slightly to the bottom end of expected range 
  • 2022/23 production came in slightly below expected, food usage expected to increase slightly with a decline in exports overall leaving the carryout for 2022/23 on the lower end of expectations but within the range