Monday July 11th, 2022

Markets are mostly higher this morning with the long term forecast turning more hot and dry. This is a seasonally normal trend for temperature but the concern is there is no room for error this year should rainfall amounts be deficient
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds (speculators) cut their long position 54k contracts and 21k beans as of the prior Tuesday which was in line with expectations for corn but less than expected on beans. Farmer and merchant trading has started to increase pace
Ukraine has launched a counterstrike on Russia utilizing long range weapons to target several ammunition depots, command posts and oil depots. The losses are reportedly already being felt by the Russian military
Some regions in China are scheduled to undergo mass testing with rumors of lockdowns continuing to gain tractions putting risk on demand yet again
Tomorrow brings another monthly WASDE supply and demand report providing a new set of fundamentals the current bounce back or shake up the trend yet again. The report will bring the first USDA production estimate for the spring wheat crop and an expected loss in production due to lower acreage
The market is looking for modest increased to Brazilian corn and bean production as reported by multiple agriculture consultant agencies as well as an increase in the Black sea region production and exports however the possibility of production estimates for the US are expected to be put off until the August report
Soybean sales declined for the 4th straight week with China and “unknown” combined for a net cancellation of 17 mbu with sales still shy of last years pace by 74 mbu while the USDA is looking for a 91 mbu decline yoy