Wednesday July 13, 2022

  • Yesterdays USDA report sent all markets lower with the reminder that the carryout numbers are rising for both corn and bean, old crop and new 
  • Markets regaining some of the losses this morning 
  • Scattered chances for some rain popping up on the forecast for over this weekend, hoping to offer some relief to an overall hot and dry long term trend across the U.S. 
  • Talks still ongoing in regards to Ukrainian supplies hitting the global market place 
  • Brazilian soybean exports are picking up – July exports now estimated at 7.956 MMT compared to the estimates just last week pegging them at 6.536 MMT, corn exports also expected to be up nearly a million MT from last estimate now pegged at 6.25 MMT 
  • USDA Report Breakdown
    • Corn: carry-in from ’21 crop increased based on the the June stocks numbers, as well as higher planted acres from the June 30 report of 89.9 million, left us with a higher corn supply for the ’22 crop year than previous estimates. No changes on the demand side of the balance sheet this month meant an overall increase in both old and new crop carry-out numbers 
    • Soybeans: carry-in was also increased for beans based on the updated stocks numbers, however coupled with a decrease in acres from 91 to 88.3 million acres there is an overall drop in supply for the ’22 crop year. Demand was also lowered in this report however not enough to counter the loss in supply ending up with an overall decrease in expected ’22 carryout 
    • Wheat: we saw a slight increase in yield expectations from 46.9 to 47.3 bu/ac leading to increased production for ’22. We also saw a slight increase in exports but not enough to counter the gain in supply so overall got an increased carryout for the ’22 crop year