Monday August 5, 2022

• Starting the week lower after an overall uneventful USDA report on Friday 
• Forecasts are turning more favorable this week for American crops 
• Nerves slipping into the soybean market as some negative economic data come out of China 
• Overall report was uneventful for wheat, negative for corn and positive for beans 
  • However the pressure on the bean market is pulling everything down today 
• USDA Report Summary
• CORN
  • Planted acres were lowered by 0.1 million acres (a smaller decline than expected), yield was also lowered from 177.0 bu/ac to 175.4 bu/ac (a slightly larger cut than expected) leaving overall corn production down
  • Feed usage, and export sales estimates were both lowered and usage for ethanol remained the same 
  • Overall decline in 2022/23 carryout expectations with stocks to use falling below 10% to 9.6%
  • Globally – production estimates lowered from last month, leaving the 2022/23 carryout down 6 MMT from last month largely due to a decline in European production 
• SOYBEANS
  • Planted acres lowered 0.3 million acres (larger decline than expected) and yield increased to 51.9 bu/ac – a bearish surprise as the trade was expecting to see a small decline in yield – overall rise in 2022 production 
    • Record yield estimates in Ohio, Indiana and Illinois are the biggest contributors to the yield gains
  • Crush usage went unchanged this month, but we saw a slight increase in export expectations 
  • Overall 2022/23 carryout increased this month 
  • Globally – expecting an increase in production and an increase in 2022/23 carryout 
• WHEAT
  • Harvested acres slightly lower, yield higher leading to just a small increase in production 
  • Food usage and export sales up slightly for this year
  • Overall carryout down from last month 
  • Globally – production up globally but usage also up leading to an almost unchanged carryout for 2022/23