Tuesday September 13, 2022

  • Beans shot up post report yesterday shocking the market place overall – taking what we expected to be a “corn” report and completely dominating the headlines
  • Soybean yield was lowered by more than a bushel per acre to 50.5 bu/ac across the U.S. as well as seeing a harvested acres drop tightened beans to a 200 million bu carryout which is tighter than anyone had expected going into the report
  • Weekly U.S. Crop Conditions 
    • Corn dropped a point to 53% g/e with initial harvest progressed pegged at 5% completed 
    • Soybeans dropped a point to 56% g/e 

USDA Report Summary Corn

  • We got the yield cut we were expecting from 175.4 bu/ac to 172.5 bu/ac 
    • However this was mostly priced into the market pre-report so there was not a big reaction from the corn market yesterday 
  • Planted acres were also down so with lower yields and acres production was lowered quite a bit from last report
  • Supply, feed, export and ethanol demand were all lowered as well 
  • Overall saw a decrease in carryout – tight enough at 1.219 billion bu to keep the corn market supported going into harvest 

Soybeans

  • The cut in soybean yield took the market by surprise coming from 51.9 bu/ac to 50.5 bu/ac – as well as seeing a decrease in planted acres production was down much more than anticipated
  • We also saw a decrease in demand for soybeans with crush and export usage lowered
  • Overall this brought carryout to 200 million bu – also tight enough to keep soybean prices supported going into fall 
  • The wheat balance sheet went completely unchanged this month, leaving that market to ride to coat tails of corn and soys 

Wheat

The wheat balance sheet went completely unchanged this month, leaving that market to ride to coat tails of corn and soys