Thursday October 13, 2022

• Lower across the board this morning after an unexpected soybean rally yesterday fueled by the USDA report release and strong export sales 
• Biggest story from the report yesterday was soybean yields – USDA predicted a 49.8 bu/ac yield from the U.S. crop – this brought the U.S. carryout to 200 million bu which is about as tight as the trade likes to see the soybean carryout number 
• Biggest sale ever to China yesterday of U.S. soybeans at about half a million MT with additional sales today also helped to fuel the rally yesterday 
  • Personally – given the bullish report, and bullish export sales, I would have liked to see a bigger rally that what we got. The fact that the futures seem to have stalled out, unable to push through that $14 mark makes me nervous 
• On the other hand, U.S. inflation numbers were released this morning pushing our dollar lower again, below lows made two weeks ago, cracking into the $0.71 cent range 
  • This has acted as support to our basis this morning pushing the 2022 soybean prices to near two-week highs 
• Corn also had a decently supportive report, yields were lowered to 171.9 bu/ac – pretty much coming in as expected
  • With that decline we also saw a decline in U.S. carryout despite a cut to the export number and ethanol usage
• Wheat remained near unchanged