Thursday February 8, 2024

CONAB Report, Export Sales, and a Ethanol update

• The USDA at noon today.
  • Very little changes are expected on the U.S. side of the report. U.S carryout’s see minimal changes month-over-month. Focus will be on the South American numbers. Anticipation is in cuts on the Brazilian crop but an increase in production for the Argentine crops. Even with the a potential cut from Brazil, there is still an anticipation of it being the second largest corn and soybean crops. 
• Watch out for the Stats Canada Stock report this morning. 

• Corn Update:
• CONAB reduced Brazilian crop corn production estimates lower then expectations at 113.7mmt from 117.6mmt. The second crop corn also fell to 88.1mmt from 91.2mmt this month. 
• The Brazilian February export report sees exports at 744k down from 1.94mmt last year.

• Soybean Update:
• CONAB cut Brazilian soybean production to 149.4mmt down from 155.2mmt
• Brazilian soybean exports in January were up from year last pegged at 2.85mmt from 840K in January 2023. The February export estimates are down form last year at 7.3mmt vs 7.55mmt in February 2023.
• Export sales reports less then expected at 340.8k tonnes sold. 

• Wheat Update:
• India’s wheat planting is estimated to be marked at 32.4 million hectares, up 0.3 million hectares over last year. India will be the first major wheat harvest of 2024-2025 
• Japan bought 136k tonnes from Australia, Canada, and the U.S.
• Brazil has estimated February wheat exports to sit at 498k down from last years export total of 523k.

• Ethanol Update:
• Ethanol stocks increase to 509k barrels this week.
• Corn to be used this marketing year is estimated at 2.299bbu up 108 mbu from last year. 
• The Ethanol crush pace is running 65mbu ahead of the USDA’s estimates.