Friday February 16, 2024

DAYTIME MARKETS CLOSE – Monday February 19, 2024

  • Export Sales Report: Sales met expectations across the board 
  • Corn trade estimates fall near top end of expectations at 51.4mbu, Mexico and Columbia being the top two buyers.
  • Beans saw a bump from last weeks sale, but still only 13mbu booked on the week, Running 16mbu ahead of the USDA estimate, beans sales have struggled to gain traction in 2024.
  • Wheat saw 12.8mbu sold last week. 

  • Soybeans:
  • NOPA soybean crush is sitting below the average 189.99 mbu estimate and down from Decembers high of 195.3mbu, but still a January high at 185.8 mbu. January crush could have set a new record but due to the cold spell and snow in January, plants might have slowed down to ensure they didn’t run out of soybeans. When crush plants are running at full capacity, they need trucks and railcars to arrive every single day to keep up with the plant.
  • Brazilian harvest is progressing well with a estimated 33-34% acres harvested county wide with there largest soybean producing area Mato Grosso harvest nearing 70% complete. 

  • Wheat:
  • France AgriMer reported their French soft wheat ratings are unchanged this week at 68% good/ excellent. Heavy rainfalls and delayed plantings makes this crop rating below the 93% a year ago and the lowest rating since 2020. 
  • Russia Wheat production is estimated to be 93mmt, up from 91mmt in 2023, reported Russian consultancy IKAR. 2024/25 grain exports are seen down from 70mmt to 67mmt. 
  • The International Grain Council has its 2023/2024 global wheat outlook remaining steady this month at 788mmt, down from 2022/2023 at 803mmt. 
  • Russian wheat exports is pushing record volumes from Feb to Jun through there lower prices. 

  • Weather Update:
  • Argentine is seeing little rains over the next 10 days, with a 11-15 day forecast showing a chance of showers. The chart below outlines the current rainfall that Argentina has received over the past months and the average trend for the countries precipitation. Yes, the crop has seen little rain and hot weather, but in December Argentina saw an 80% above average rainfall, lowing crop stress levels.