Friday April 12, 2024

• Morning flash sale of 124,000 metric tons of soybean for delivery to unknown destinations, 23/24 delivery. 
• Chinese custom report March soybeans imports 20% down from last year at 5.54mt and the lowest march figure in four years. 
• Brazilian CONABS agency cut their 23/24 soybean production estimate from 146.9 to 146.5mmt. Total corn was cut from 112.75 to 110.96mmt with second crop corn down from 87.35 to 85.6mmt. 
• USDA Report Recap
  • Corn:
    • We saw smaller U.S corn stocks as demand was increased for corn feed and ethanol usage by 25mbu each, lowering U.S carryout to 2.1bbu.
    • World carryout came in higher than expectations, slightly lower than last year. World corn was offset by lower feed usage number.
    • No change to brazils production number and Argentina’s corn production was lowered by 1mmt.
  • Soybean:
    • U.S import reduction lowered by 5mbu, and exports expectation were reduce by 20mbu. Total usage down 30mbu, with net ending stocks of 25mbu, leaving a major carryout of 340mbu. 
    • World carryout for beans was also higher, but no major change over last month. South America production estimates were unchanged by the USDA. 
  • Wheat
    • U.S carryout grew as imports were cut by 5mbu and feed usage was reduced by 30mbu. No major changes in the wheat world carryout at 258.27mmt. 
• China cancellations of corn from Ukraine amounting to 300,000mt
  • Why the corn cancellations?  Possibly to support Chinese farmers while grain prices are low.  Chinese demand declining while domestic supplies are high
• China cancelled 1mmt of Australian wheat and 500,000mt of US wheat in March
  • Wheat cancellations were attributed to Chinese grain prices falling and economic struggles