Wednesday April 17, 2024

• China’s hog herd is the smallest it has been in the last three years, creating a noticeable reduction in their feed demand
  • Prior to the outbreak of African Swine Fever (2018) china was the top producer of hogs
  • Hog margins are tight, population growth stalled and consumption changes
• USD dollar continues to gain strength reaching a 5 month high against the Euro
  • USD spiking VS Brazilian Real making US commodities less attractive
• Planting in a good part of the US has temporarily stalled this week with some widespread rain
• Ukraine’s grain harvest is expected to decline by 10% and Russia by 9% due to reduction in planted acres
  • Corn acres anticipated to decline by 4.5%
  • Spring wheat acres also forecasted to drop
  • Soybean acres are estimated to rise by 22% 
• Interest rates may stay higher for longer
  • Inflation remains high
  • The first cut was anticipated to begin in June but now has been pushed back to September
  • Rates were expected to be cut by 1.5% by year’s end but now the expectation has been lowered to less than 0.5%