Tuesday April 23, 2024

  • Wheat was able to rally 20 cents yesterday and closed above the 50 day moving average. This was the first time since mid January that wheat was able to close above the 50 day. See the chart below for a look at the moving averages
    • The funds were buyers of 6k contracts yesterday, the signs of a rally likely scared the weaker shorts into buying back
  • Wheat prices are being supported by warmer and drier weather in southwest Russia
    • The crop still has room for improvement as the end of May, June and July are critical growing months 
    • A Russian analytical group cut its estimates for Russia’s wheat crop by 1 million tonnes
    • A decrease in Russo-European wheat could tighten the global supply and boost world prices
  • While wheat has a decent fundamental story it is not the same case for corn and soybeans as they have been dragged along with wheat rally, but still have the bearish supply heading into 2024/25 weighing them down
  • Export inspections were released, corn reached the higher end of the trading range while wheat and and soybean shipments were mid range
  • in the states corn planting is at 12% this week and beans are sitting at 8% this week. Analysts were expecting winter wheat ratings to be at 54% but they have come in at 50% good/excellent condition