Thursday May 2, 2024

  • Corn futures higher this morning from the heavy Midwest rains, delaying planting
    • More rain for most areas for the Corn Belt next week
    • Multiple rain events expected for this week across the US
  • Corn was the overnight volume leader, after closing above moving averages
  • July soybean futures are over the 50 day moving average (11.83), we have not closed above the 50 day since March
  • Flooding across RGDS in Southern Brazil is becoming disastrous, with more rain to come in the next 10 days.¬† The worst round of RGDS flooding since 1941
    • 11 deaths, 21 people are missing
    • 60-70% of the soybean crop in the area was harvested before the rain
    • Top end of the RGDS soybean loss estimate would be 5.00MMT and the bottom¬†would be 1.25MMT
  • Wheat prices are also on the rise today fueled by drought conditions in the Black Sea and geopolitical news
  • Ukraine Ag Minister sees wheat and corn exports falling by nearly a quarter in the 2024/2025 marketing season due to reduced acreage
    • wheat down from 18MMT in 2023/24 to 14MMT this coming season
    • corn down from 27MMT to 21MMT this season
  • Federal Reserve have decided to leave interest rates unchanged
  • Oil prices drop more than 3% on Wednesday, to a seven week low
  • Daily ethanol production was seen up 33K barrels/day this week