Tuesday May 7, 2024

• Yesterday’s rally was a sign of fund liquidation move that was technically supported but not fundamentally supported
  • Managed money has been liquidating a long held, large net short position
• USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday
  • First look at new crop balance sheets for corn and beans, trendline national yield is projected
  • Possible downward revisions for this year’s South American crops 
  • US demand adjustments
• Wheat futures stalling in the overnight, with rain in parts of the central plains for the wheat crop but gaining strength on reports of a hard freeze in parts of the Black sea region.  More cold weather is in the forecast for this week for the region.  Russia’s wheat crop is roughly split 50/50, spring/winter wheat.
  • Large carry in Russian wheat stocks
• Midwest weather continues to slow planting this week
  • NASS reported through Sunday US farmers had 36% of their corn planted, 25% of their soybeans and 47% of their spring wheat crops