Friday May 17, 2024

• It is hard to find one fundamental story to explain beans being up over 7 cents this morning. Looks like beans and corn are being aided by technicals 
• Wheat was holding near highs early this morning due to Black Sea worries, but have backed off since market open
• Volume and volatility has taken a step back heading into the end of the week, wheats influence having less of a hold on the market 
• The Midwest is expected to make some good planting progress before they receive rain this Sunday
• The Kansa wheat tour took place this week and wheat yields were estimated to be 46.5 bpa which is up from the 5 year average of 42.4 bpa
• Export sales were released yesterday, corn and soybean sales were disappointing…
  • Beans were not looking hot with only 9.8mbu sold last week. China has been sitting on the sidelines when it comes to bean purchases. Beans are having the slowest new crop sales pace in 15+ years (yikes)
  • Corn sales met expectations, but year to date they are running 55+ mbu behind the USDA target 
  • Wheat sales were a total 2.9mbu last week, with Mexico being the largest purchaser. New crop wheat sales have picked up in recent weeks
• The managed money short for grains is near record short ahead of the CFTC commitment of traders reports release today. Trade will watch this report closely 
• The drought monitor was released yesterday, below is the percent of US areas experiencing drought
  • Corn 12%
  • Soybeans 9%
  • Winter Wheat 25%
  • Spring Wheat 14%