Thursday May 23, 2024

• Corn led the overnight trade volume with gains and soybeans are seeing some strength
• Agroconsult released their latest crop estimates for Brazils second crop of corn the estimate came in at 96.7mmt which would be a 10% reduction from last years production
  • This Safrinha corn crop should account for 70-80% of Brazils corn production 
• The weekly Ethanol Report showed demand was up week/week, daily production was up 19k barrels/day
• There are rumours that China might have bought US beans for July shipment, it is said to be 2 cargoes, which isn’t a huge sale but is a positive sign for export going forward
  • The sale is presumed true due to Brazilian bean processors reporting damages to storage facilities
  • This news contributed to November 24 beans testing $12.20 futures yesterday, which is getting closer to the 200 day moving average
• Wheat has traded to highs that haven’t been seen since late summer of last year, the strength continues to be a result of Black Sea crop concerns. Last Tuesday funds were still short, but less than they were last month
  • If the funds are happy with where their position is sitting and don’t fear a fundamental story, we have to begin to question what would push the wheat market higher from here
  • The dry weather is expected to stress 50% of Russia wheat by early June and expand to 75% of Ukraine’s. Ukraine and Russia together account for 1/3rd of the worlds wheat exports.