Tuesday June 4, 2024

USDA Crop Progress Report illustrating a bearish tone, corn ratings off to a solid start

Corn planting 91% complete, 1% lower than expectations but 2% ahead of the 5 year average
- Initial crop rating of the season was pegged at 75% G/E (five points higher than expected), up from 64% last year and 69% from the 5 year average
Soybean planting is at 78% complete, 2% lower than trade estimates but 5% ahead of average
Winter wheat was rated at 49% G/E taking back the 1% it had lost the week prior

110K tonnes of corn sold to Spain for 23/24 delivery
Corn export inspections were at 54.1 million bushels, the highest since mid April and above the trade estimates
- corn exports are about 1% behind USDA’s estimated pace
Soybeans are currently 4% ahead of USDA’s expected export pace
Wheat is 5% ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace

Soybean crop estimates have been cut 1.2% from the previous estimate to 149 million tonnes
- The reduced estimate comes from the significant damage caused by floods in April and May in the Rio Grande do Sul
- The cut was particularly offset by other states in Brazil reporting an increase of area harvested
Corn crop estimates were cut 3.1% from the month prior
- This reduction is from the excessive dryness from the winter (Safrinha) crop
- With the cut in the corn estimate, the expected exports for 2023/24 have also been reduced to 40 million tonnes, down from 45 million tonnes