Friday July 12, 2024

• CBOT futures sag in anticipation of the July USDA crop report
• Export Sales:
  • US corn export sales increased last week, +51% from the previous week but -13% from the prior 4 week average
  • Soybean sales were soft, -9% from the previous week and -40% from the prior 4 week average
  • Net wheat sales at 240,400MT, falling below pre report expectations
• France, the largest wheat producer in the EU, is expecting a drastic reduction of wheat stocks and exports from the repeated rain in the region.
  • French exports are expected to be at 7.5MMT, down from 10.2MMT in 23/24 crop year
• China left its 2024 corn and soybean crop estimate unchanged from June
  • Not all of China’s corn area is seeing the rainfall that it needs, while others are endure excessive rainfall
• Acute Black Sea and and Eastern European continues to be dry and hot as corn approaches the pollination stage.  The long-range forecast looks similar.
• Brazil’s corn harvest is at 63%, well ahead of last years pace (26%).  The hot and dry weather has accelerated grain dry down leading to the rapid harvest pace, see figure below.