Monday July 15, 2024

• The USDA WASDE report was released Friday and there was some shock. The report did not include the larger stock numbers that we saw for corn on the June 28th report. It was anticipated that we would see larger carryout numbers for corn but instead we saw an increase of 75mbu for feed use and exports. This tightened the corn carryout by 1.87bbu
  • The feed and export demand for new crop corn was also increased, this left us at a 5mbu smaller carryout for 24/25
  • What does all this mean for corn? The December contract saw a reversal on Friday which gave the market hope (see the yellow highlight on the chart below). If we close higher again this afternoon it would help confirm the reversal. Unfortunately it looks like we are taking back those gains
• Beans had very little changes on the balance sheet 
• Wheat saw several changes to the balance sheet
  • The USDA lowered both imports and exports for old crop wheat 
  • Wheat production was raised to a surprising 133 million bushels
  • After the release of the bearish report the September contract traded to contract lows
  • On the upside US wheat has become cheaper than French wheat and is competitive with Russian wheat, this could help the export market off set the increases in production
• Frances wheat harvest has shown little progress last week as constants rains have kept the country on track for one of their worst harvests in decades
• Fund traders continue to hold a record short position in the corn market (see chart from Karen Braun below)
• Russia hasn’t ruled out the possibility of resuming the Black Sea grain deal