Tuesday July 16, 2024

Grains bounce from lows, it remains to be seen what kind of crop damage, if any, was produced by last night’s intense storm
USDA export inspections report showed last week’s corn exports within range of expectations, but still running behind 2% of the needed pace. Soybean inspections fell lower than the range of estimates, but manage keep ahead of the needed pace and wheat exceeded exceptions slightly, still on pace to match expectations.
Crop conditions in the US are extremely good.
- Corn crop conditions held steady at 68% G/E
  - The crop is 41% silking nationally vs 32% on average
- Soybeans conditions unchanged from last week, sitting at 68% G/E
  - The crop is 41% blooming vs 41% on average
- Winter wheat harvest is estimated at 71% complete this week, slightly missing the pre-report estimate of 74%.
- Spring wheat crop rated 77% G/E, compared to 75% last week.
Yesterday’s June NOPA crush came in at 175.9 million bushels, below the average of 177.9 million bushels. This is down from 183.6 mbu in May. Current crush pace is running well ahead of the USDA target. Soybean oil stocks tightened this month to 1622 million pounds vs 1724 mln last month.
It was dry in Illinois and Indiana, but Beryl replenished moistures in those areas last week. An updated drought monitor will be out Thursday to confirm.
At current conditions and forecast, the Eastern corn belt states are expected to set all time record yields, pushing the national average yield above trend, 181-183 bu/ac & 53.0-53.5 bu/ac.
Brazil is expected to product 169 million tonnes of soybeans this winter, up from 153 last year and 162 in 2023. This will provide headwinds to any rally in the soybean complex.
The Chinese economy continues to falter during the second quarter. China’s GDP expanded by 4.7%, its slowest pace in five quarters brought on by poor consumer spending