Friday July 26, 2024

Grain futures are lower heading into the weekend
China reported its largest grain output increase in 9 years this summer, driven by a bumper wheat harvest
Export Sales:
- New crop soybean export sales have picked up in the last 2 weeks with their largest sales totals thus far
- 264K tonnes of soybeans sold to unknown for 24/25
- US corn export sales were soft last week, down -24% from the previous week and -29% from the prior 4 week average
- Soybean sales fell below pre-report expectations, down 61% from the previous week and down 63% from the prior 4 week average
- Wheat sales were near the lower end of expectations, down 47% from the previous week and -46% from the prior 4 week average
US economic growth is much stronger than expected during the second quarter. GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8%, surpassing the forecasted 2.1%
In the next few days typhoon Gemei is expected to hit southern and eastern China. It is expected that some corn and soybean areas will be affected however most the impact will be on the rice crop. Trade will be waiting to see if China will increase their imports to make up for lost crop
China’s domestic inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has reached a historically high level, see figure below
The Brazilian real has fallen 17% in the past year due to meager economic growth and ongoing gov’t spending
As we enter August the markets focus will intensify on the size of this years soybean and corn crop