Thursday September 5, 2024

• Markets are starting off today in the red, the next round of yield estimates are looking even stronger which has put a halt on grain rallies
• Corn, soybeans and wheat all managed to rally yesterday. New crop corn and new crop soybeans have closed higher for four consecutive sessions
• The corn short covering event continues, large money managers were estimated to be net buyers of over 60k contracts during the last 4 trading sessions  
• StoneX crop survey results were released yesterday (See table below). Corn estimates came in at 182.9bpa and bean estimates at 53bpa. Some are arguing that late August heat and dryness has reduced crop potential in many areas but we are yet to see that reduction on any of the crop estimates
• As we moved toward the start of US harvest all eyes are pointed southward to Brazil.  As there is still no rain in the forecast until at least October
  • Late planting and decreased yield means Brazil will have to carry old crop beans into the fall to feed their crush plants. This will increase the cost of beans in Brazil and slightly decrease their exports
• Mississippi River Levels are staring their seasonal decline which will surely have an impact on grain movement come harvest. The drought monitor continues to worsen along southern Mississippi. This may affect the United States ability to meet new crop shipping demands