Tuesday September 3, 2024

Markets are in the green coming out of the long weekend
There was a flash sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to China for 24/25 delivery and a sale of 100k tonnes of soybean cake and meal to Columbia for 24/25 delivery
On Friday we saw a rally in Corn and Soybeans. New crop corn futures rallied 16 cents per/bu from late August lows and soybeans rallied 53 cents from their August lows
It is hard to pinpoint the exact reason for the moves the market made last week other than breaking above some nearby moving averages and delayed planting in Brazil. The probability of this “rally” being sustainable seems unlikely with harvest starting in the corn belt in a few weeks
The Brazilian soybean crop is experiencing the worst drought conditions in over 40 years. Soybean planting in Mato Grosso is expected to be delayed due to below average rainfall in September. They’re expecting the dry weather to persist for at least two weeks (See precipitation probability map below)
The Great Ontario Yield Tour is predicting the 2024 Ontario soybean yield will be 54.12bu/acre this yield guess surpasses the previous record of 53bu/acre from last year and would mean the 2024 crop would be the best ever produced in Ontario.
- They are also predicting corn yields to bring the third largest crop in the past 5 years
The CFTC Report showed funds were not as short in the corn market as the trade expected leaving corn only short by 230k contracts. Wheat and bean fund positions came out right near trade estimates