Tuesday September 10, 2024

• Soybeans and corn are both down this morning while wheat is attempting to move higher
  • Soybean futures were down in the overnights and continue to drop this morning.  The better than expected US soybean crop rating is weighing on prices
  • Fund traders have trimmed their net short positions in the corn and soybeans markets
• USDA reported a Flash Sale of 132,000mt of soybeans to China for 24/25 delivery
• US Crop Ratings:
  • The soybean crop is holding steady at 65% G/E (same as last week), surpassing the trade’s estimate of 63% G/E.  25% of the crop is dropping leaves
  • The corn crop dropped a point from last week to 64% G/E.  74% of the crop is in dent, 29% mature and 5% harvested.  Harvest is slightly ahead of schedule, the heatwave across the Midwest has pushed maturity a little.
  • Spring wheat is ahead of schedule at 85% harvested and winter wheat planting is 6% complete
• Ukraine has managed to gain in the Black Sea and increase there exports, APK an analyst from Ukraine has raised Ukraine’s 24/25 June-July Wheat exports 0.4mmt to 13.8mmt. The same analyst lowered Ukraine’s exports by 0.5mmt to 23mmt. Currently, Ukraine has record high ending stocks at 6.2mmt, compared to last years 4.8mmt. 
• Tropical storm Francine is expected to develop into a hurricane (category 2) before reaching Southern Louisiana tomorrow
• Planting of Brazil’s first corn crop is slightly behind last year’s pace, with low soil moisture and the hot/dry weather
• The USDA will release their September Crop Production report on Thursday
  • This will be the first year the USDA data will include field sampling, along with satellite imagery and farmer surveys.
  • See image below for StoneX estimates