Tuesday September 17, 2024

• Markets are mixed this morning as US crop condition ratings remain solid. Any bullish enthusiasm is dissipating as corn and soybean harvest kicks off.
• There was a flash sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 24/25 delivery.
• The NOPA crush report shocked the bean oil market yesterday. Crush used 158 mln bu of beans in August this is 4 million bu below the lowest estimates and way down from the 182.9mln bu used in July (See chart below). Large amounts of downtime at many of the plants resulted in the larger than expected drop.
  • Bean oil stocks are down 24.1% from July to August. 
  • This drop in stocks has helped to prop up soybean futures
• Southern Brazil is in store for some rains over the next week but the northern and central growing areas are still missing out. Brazils corn is estimated at 4% planted, this is down 10% from last year and the lowest pace since 20/21. Soybean planting still hasn’t begun, this isn’t uncommon but a story to keep an eye on.
• The USDAs crop condition for corn improved by 1% to 65% g/e which was above expectations. Corn harvest is pegged at 9% complete. Bean ratings declined 1% and harvest is at 6% complete.
• The Fed is set to meet this week, the market thinks that we will see a rate cut Wednesday afternoon. Inflationary pressures were one of the reasons we saw an increase in commodity prices over the past years. As the Fed has tamed inflation we have seen commodity prices relax.