Tuesday September 24, 2024

• Soybean futures rallied sharply on Monday and are continuing their upward movement on Brazilian dryness, closing above the 50 day moving average.
  • The Nov ’24 contract gained 27 cents per bushel on large volume and posted its best close since early August.
  • Hot and dry conditions continue to delay soybean planting in Brazil.
• Corn is trying to holding on, wheat is taking a step back from yesterday’s gains
• USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans on Monday of 165,000mt to unknown for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.
  • The flash sales have been consistent but the volume has been small in comparison to previous years.
• The FED interest rate cut last week has many preparing for inflation to return.  The inflation fear draws funds back into the commodity sector.  The funds that are currently short in the bean market may feel less comfortable holding those large positions.
• US Crop conditions
  • Corn was unchanged last week and rated at 65% G/E, surpassing the 64% trade expectation.  14% of the crop is harvested above the 11% average.
  • Soybean conditions were unchanged coming in at 64% G/E, surpassing the 63% trade expectation.  13% of the crop is harvested above the 8% average.
  • Winter wheat is 25% planted compared to 24% on average for this time of year.
• Export Inspections:
  • US corn and wheat shipments were strong last week, slightly exceeding trade expectations.  While bean inspections fell mid-range.