Tuesday October 1, 2024

• Grain futures are mixed this morning with wheat leading the way and corn higher.
• Soybeans are down this morning on improving South American weather forecasts, US harvest rolling on and China celebrates Golden week.
• Corn futures had a good run yesterday after the release of the USDA report, rallying to more than three-month high
  • September 1st corn stocks were down 52 million bushels, below USDA’s most recent estimate for the old crop carryout
  • This decrease is due to a greater feed and residual usage, USDA left the 2023 crop estimate mostly unchanged.
  • Soybean stocks were within 2 million bushels of USDA’s most recent estimate.
  • Wheat stocks fell within 13 million bushels of the average trade guess.  US wheat production estimates were inline.
• Flash sale: exporters sold 116,000mt  of soybeans to China yesterday for 24/25 delivery.
• Export inspections:
  • Corn shipments were near the upper end of trade expectations. -1% from the previous week but +70% compared to the same week last year.
  • Soybean shipments were within range of estimates and roughly 1% behind the pace needed to meet the USDA estimate.
  • Wheat inspections were also within the range of estimates and currently 2% behind the pace needed.
• Harvest Progress:
  • Corn is at 21% complete, slightly behind expectations but 3% ahead of average.
  • Bean harvest at 26% complete, 2% ahead of the estimates and well ahead of the 18% average.
  • Winter wheat is at 39% planted, a point ahead of the average.
• Container trade will be the most impacted from the strike with the East Coast and Gulf ports.  This accounts for roughly 10% of grain exports, as well as the majority of cotton and meat exports.