Friday October 4, 2024

  • Corn and wheat are both down this morning.  Crude oil is trying to add some support to beans.
    • Bullish momentum has run out post USDA report and Russian production worries.
    • Weather is favorable for Brazil as showers dotted portions of N Brazil overnight and the wet season looks ready to resume next week.  The US is advancing well with harvest.
  • Export sales:
    • Corn export sales surged to 66.3MBU on the week ending 9/26.  This is 3 times more than the previous week.  The overall tally is still below 71.5MBU comparable for last year and slightly behind the USDA target.  Mexico continues to be basically the only buyer of US corn.  See figure below.
    • Soybeans were at the top end of estimates at 53MBU.
    • Wheat sales also met estimates.
  • The US Port workers strike ends, after 2 days, with minimal trade damage for agriculture.
  • Energy markets continue to find support on the escalating conflict in the middle east.  Crude oil was up 4% on the day, moving past the 50-day moving average.
  • Rain has been added to Ukraine’s forecast and will help to relieve the 4 month drought.  Timely for winter wheat seeding.