Thursday October 10, 2024

  • Wheat is making some minor gains this morning on Black Sea supply concerns.  Russia determining its own crop size and exportable surplus while targeting Ukraine’s exporting infrastructure and vessels.  Dry weather conditions persist across Western Russia and the Western US Plains.
  • Corn and soybeans are down.  Harvest pressure, favourable Brazil weather and the looming report are putting a negative tone to the market.
  • Rosario Grains cut their 24/25 wheat production estimates from 20.5MMT to 19.5MMT from lack of moisture.
  • USDA will release their monthly WASDE and crop production report tomorrow.
    • Minimal changes expected for corn and bean production estimates.
    • New crop US corn carryout estimate is likely to be reduced amid lighter than expected Sept 1st stocks.
    • Possible upward adjustment to the demand side of the new crop corn balance sheet with the strong export and ethanol numbers.
  • Ethanol production jumps to a three-week high.  Demand spiked this week to levels not seen since the end of May, see chart below.
  • Scattered showers moved across Brazil’s soybean country overnight.  The forecast looks promising for moisture in the next 5-10 day period.
  • Flash Sale:  US exporters sold 126,000MT of corn to unknown for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.