Tuesday October 8, 2024

  • Soybeans and Corn are down this morning as US harvest continues, Wheat is flat.
  • China did not offer another round of aggressive economic stimulus following their Golden Week Holiday,  putting pressure on grain futures.  Commodity markets were riding on bullish hope that China was finally going to aggressively stimulate its economy, boosting customer demand.
  • NASS reported US farmers harvested 47% of their beans and 30% of their corn as of Sunday.
    • Winter wheat seeding is at 51% complete and 25% emerged
  • Brazilian farmers are confident in the wet forecast and have started planting their new soybean crop, with progress to accelerate mid-October (see image below).  
  • After months of Russia putting wheat on the market at lower prices (due to the large carryover from 2023) we are finally seeing higher wheat offers.
  • Escalating tensions in the Middle East are not only driving energy markets higher, its also driving nitrogen prices higher.  Six of the world’s top ten urea exporting continues are located in the Middle East and North Africa, accounting for half the entire world’s urea exports.  Near-term global supply tightness is evident in tenders.
  • Export Inspections:
    • This week was the biggest week for soybean shipments since January at 52.6mbu, beating the top end of the trade guess.  Shipments should be strong this time of year, its nice to see this materialize.
    • Corn and wheat exports both fell mid-range at 36.7mbu and 13.4mbu.
  • Flash Sales:
    • US exporters sold 155,000mt of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year.
    • US exporters sold 172,500mt of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for 2024/25 marketing year.