Tuesday October 15, 2024

• Markets are in the red this morning, corn and soybean futures took a big fall on Monday.
  • The December 2024 corn contract lost 8 cents, making it the lowest daily close since September 20th.
  • The November 2024 soybean contract lost 10 cents and closed below $10 futures for the first time since late August. 
• Harvest pressure and USDA projections are weighing on the market heavily this morning.
• Large money managers had covered a large portion of their net short positions but appear to be shorting the market once again.
• On October 11th there were two flash sales
  • 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 24/25 delivery
  • 577,928 tonnes of corn to unknown for 24/25 delivery  
• The USDA report was uneventful, the biggest change was on the corn balance sheet with an adjustment made for the smaller stock number seen last month. Corn yield increased by 0.2bu and corn exports increased by 25mb.
  • The change in corn still leaves us with a nearly 2 billion bushel carryout and a carryout use ratio of 13.3%. Historically that ratio is equivalent to an average US farm price of $4.15/bu. 
  • There were fewer changes to the bean balance sheet. The carryout is unchanged at 550 million bushels with a carryout to use ratio of 12.5%. Historically this ratio is associated with a US farm price of $10.33/bu.
• Russia will increase its wheat export tax by 41%, this will only equate to a $5 or $6 per mt increase. This news comes amid worsening drought conditions and reduced Russian production forecast.
• As of Friday Brazil had planted 11% of its soybean crop, historically speaking the delayed planting shouldn’t have a huge impact on bean yields.