Friday October 18, 2024

• Markets are in the red to end off the week
• Corn posted a bullish key reversal yesterday on the daily chart. Opening below Wednesdays close and ending the day higher. We were close to the 50 day moving average this morning. These flash sales to Mexico and Unknown may be spurring demand, but the farmer still isn’t selling…
• Flash Sales
  • 7.8 million bu of corn to Mexico for 24/25 delivery 
  • 4 million bu of corn to unknown for 24/25 delivery 
• BRICS nations are set to meet next week in Russia. Their first matter of discussion will be a new payment method that will reduce the worlds reliance of the US dollar. BRICS membership expanded at the beginning of the year and now includes 30% of the worlds landmass, controls 40% of global oil production and accounts for 37% of the global GDP.
• The US dollar continued upward this week and reached 2 months highs yesterday. This upward trend more than likely led to some weakness in the commodity markets. Looking at the chart below we see that the USD market and commodities trend in the opposite directions.
• USDA weekly drought monitor, below is the percent of areas experiencing drought
  • Nearly 83% of the corn belt is experiencing some level of drought.
  • Corn 62%
  • Soybeans 54%
  • Winter Wheat 52%
  • Spring Wheat 32%
• US ethanol production increased for the third consecutive week last week.
• There is a bit of a bullish outlook for corn as Brazils supply will dwindle through the winter and wont be a big player until next summer when they have an exportable surplus from their second crop. (see second chart below)
  • The US and Ukraine will be the suppliers of the international market Jan through June. Importing countries like China and EU will have to work through their domestics harvest supply before they begin importing.