Tuesday November 5, 2024
- Soybean and wheat futures were modestly higher in overnight trading on demand for US supplies, corn is flat this morning. Markets are quiet ahead of today’s US election.
- Flash Sales:
- 124,000mt of corn sold to unknown for 24/25 delivery
- 150,000mt of corn sold to Mexico for 24/25 delivery
- 120,000mt of corn to unknown for 24/25 delivery
- 132,000mt of soybeans to unknown for 24/25 delivery
- StoneX Yield Estimates were released yesterday, both corn and bean yield estimates were reduced (see image below). StoneX now has national corn yield estimates within a tenth of the October USDA estimate. A corn yield of 183.7bpa would be a record yield, bigger than last year’s. Beans at 52.6bpa would also make 2024 a record.
- Election day in the US. Gold prices were up yesterday, presumably pricing in the election uncertainty and preparing for the Fed policy meeting later this week.
- The US dollar is under pressure after updated polls shifted in favor of Democratic candidate Harris. The dollar index fell by 0.40% on Monday and posted a 2 week low.
- Corn and bean export inspections were within the range of estimates this week. Soybean shipments declined last week but remain relatively strong.
- Corn sitting at 30.7MBU, this is 3% ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA expectations.
- Bean inspections were 79.3MBU, 2% ahead of the pace needed.
- Wheat shipments fell below expectations at 7MBU.
- Crop Progress and conditions:
- 41% of the winter wheat is rated G/E. The forecasted rainfall in the next two weeks is expected to boost conditions.
- Bean harvest is at 94%, this is 1% behind trade expectations but up 5% on the week and the fastest harvest since 2005.
- Corn harvest is at 91% complete, this is 1% ahead of trade expectations and up 10% on the week and the fastest since 2012.
- Brazilian soybean planting is progressing at a brisk pace.