Wednesday October 30, 2024

• Markets are mixed this morning
  • Corn led the overnight trade volume but is struggling against technical resistance. 
  • There was an early wheat rebound last night but it was sold off into this morning.
  • Soybeans are sitting in the green but this is after a fresh two month low on yesterdays evening open.
• Fundamentals continue to weigh heavily on the market. A large majority of US crops are in the bin and the weather pattern will see a shift that will give the dry corn belt and plains some much needed moisture.
• Yesterday wheat futures had a good solid day in the green, this was thanks to the less than ideal winter wheat rating conditions. The rating was even lower than the most pessimistic trade expectations. In fact it was the lowest rating to start out the growing season in 14 years.
  • Keep in mind that low initial wheat ratings have very little correlation to final yield. Take a look at the chart below.
• Russian winter wheat area is running 15% lower year on year, if this pattern holds and winter wheat acres are lower maybe we will see a story.
  • Farmers aren’t keen on planting acres until they see more moisture.
• Brazil soybean planting has accelerated and is now over 1/3 complete. 
• If Brazilian weather remains favorable we will see some pressure on exports by early 2025.